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European emission standards will change in 2020 and Harley Davidson's sportster motorcycle will no longer be capable of meeting those new standards. So what will happen to the sportster? Well, nobody knows, but everyone is expecting a major change from Harley Davidson.
Harley Davidson could discontinue the sportster line entirely, but it doesn't seem likely. It took years for Harley Davidson to develop sportster name recognition, and a very recognizable engine found in both the 883 and 1200. Its just too valuable to discontinue, so I don't see the sportster disappearing entirely. Other motorcycle manufacturers still copy the sportster look. Yamaha did it with their Bolt model and Honda with the new redesigned Rebel. When other people copy your stuff its a good indicator you have something valuable.
I don't think USA emission requirements are changing in 2020, so Harley could discontinue the sportster in Europe only.. This would buy Harley some time, but eventually they will still need to deal with the stricter emission requirements. Kawasaki discontinued the KLX250 in the United States in 2015 and brought it back to the US in 2018. It remained in production in other parts of the world during this time, so manufactures are known for limiting sales by geographic region.
The sportster family could merge with other models by sharing similar design and components in much the same way as some Dyna models became softails in 2018. The Dyna Street Bob and Lowrider moved to the new softail family by adopting Harley's new rear suspension and frame and becoming softail's. Harley has new models scheduled to be released in 2020 like the new Pan American motorcycle powered by a new water cooled, overhead cam, 1200cc engine. Its possible Harley could merge some components from these new models with the Sportster. For example, using the new engine to replace the old sportster power plant. This would help with performance and emissions, but a water cooled overhead cam engine would drastically change the sportster look and I can't imagine Harley discontinuing the sportster name; I just don't see this happening. Its possible Harley could make some cosmetic changes to the engine to look more like a classic sportster, but thats easier said than done. Adding overhead cams greatly increases the cylinder/head length which would be hard to cover up. It also eliminates the need for push rod's and push rod tubes, which are a very recognized part for a sportster engine.
I don't expect Harley Davidson will discontinue the sportster or dramatically change its looks. What I think will happen in 2020, or shortly after, Harley Davidson will introduce a new sportster engine that maintains that classic look while providing improved performance and emissions. Harley Davidson did the same thing in 2017 when they upgraded the big v-twin engine to the new Milwaukee 8. But who knows what will happen. I never thought Harley would manufacture a $30,000 electric motorcycle, but here we are.
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