European emission standards will change in 2020, or soon after, and Harley Davidson's sportster motorcycle will no longer be capable of meeting those new standards. So what will happen to the sportster? Well, nobody knows, but everyone is expecting a major change from Harley Davidson.
Harley Davidson could discontinue the sportster line entirely, or discontinue the model only in Europe. The Sportster has incredible name recognition and one of the most recognizable engine's in the world, so I have a tough time imagining Harley discontinuing the sportster entirely. Manufactures in the past have limited products by geographic region, so its not so far fetched to think Harley may limit sportster availability to buy them more time to fix the emission problem.
The sportster family could merge with other models by sharing similar design and components in much the same way as some Dyna models became softails in 2018. The Dyna Street Bob and Lowrider moved to the new softail family by adopting Harley's new rear suspension and frame. Harley has new models scheduled to be released in 2020 like the new Pan American motorcycle powered by a new water cooled, overhead cam, 1200cc engine. Its possible Harley could merge some components from these new models with the sportster. For example, using the new engine to replace the old sportster power plant. This would help with performance and emissions, but a water cooled overhead cam engine would drastically change the sportster look. Its possible Harley could make some cosmetic changes to the engine to look more like a classic sportster, but that's easier said than done. Adding overhead cams greatly increases the cylinder/head length which would be hard to cover up. It also eliminates the need for push rod's and push rod tubes, which are a very recognized part for a sportster engine.
So what do I think will happen? I don't expect Harley Davidson will discontinue the sportster or dramatically change its looks. What I think will happen in 2020, or shortly after, Harley Davidson will introduce a new sportster engine that maintains that classic look while providing improved performance and emissions. Harley Davidson did the same thing in 2017 when they upgraded the big v-twin engine to the new Milwaukee 8. But who knows what will happen. I never thought Harley would manufacture a $30,000 electric motorcycle, but here we are.